Third World War possibility?

Let’s take a look at the situation

Is a Third World War on the horizon? Iran attacked Israel with extensive airstrikes. World leaders urge calm amid fears of wider conflict. Israel’s defense forces report over 300 drones and missiles. Concerns grow in an already troubled region. Attack caused minor damage, says Israel’s military. Iron Dome intercepted 99% of launches. Iran alleges Israeli attack on embassy grounds in Damascus.

In response to the attack on Saturday, Israel has promised to “exact a price” from Iran ahead of a War Cabinet meeting on Monday. Experts have expressed uncertainty on the precise timing and magnitude of this kind of backlash.

Iran’s airstrike on Israeli military sites drew strong condemnation from US President Joe Biden.

Biden pledged to protect citizens, vowing necessary action against threats.

NBC News reports US officials fear Israel may escalate tensions with Iran.

Biden privately worries Netanyahu seeks US involvement in regional conflict.

Biden reassured commitment to Israel’s security, calling it “ironclad.”

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The situation seems to be teetering on the edge of escalation. With Iran’s recent large-scale assault on Israel and the subsequent interception of most of the incoming munitions, tensions are undoubtedly high. The U.S.’s stance on avoiding further conflict in the Middle East, despite its commitment to Israel’s security, indicates a delicate diplomatic balancing act.

Given the potential for further disruptions to oil supplies if the conflict escalates into a full-on war between Israel and Iran, it’s understandable that investors are closely monitoring the situation. The stability of oil prices, currently holding around $85.5 per barrel, reflects this cautious sentiment.

It will be crucial to observe how Israel responds to the attack and whether it aims for de-escalation or retaliation. Any further military action could have significant implications not only for the region’s security but also for global oil markets and broader geopolitical dynamics.

US OIL is profitable right now

It seems that despite the tense situation in the Middle East, investors are expressing some relief, reflected in the slight uptick in U.S. stock-market futures. The fact that crude oil prices remain relatively stable around $85.65 suggests that markets are cautiously optimistic about the situation not escalating further at the moment.

This response could indicate that investors are interpreting the events over the weekend as isolated incidents rather than the beginning of a broader conflict. However, given the volatility of geopolitical tensions, this sentiment could change rapidly depending on developments in the region.

Continued monitoring of the situation in the Middle East and any further statements or actions from key players like the U.S., Israel, and Iran will be essential for understanding how markets may react in the coming days.

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Beat Inflation

S&P 500 Sets a New High Amid Fed Watchful Eye and Earnings Surge

As investors anticipated the earnings results of many major tech companies and the Fed’s interest rate decision, the S&P 500 hit a fresh all-time high on Monday.

The index increased by 0.81% to 4,929.53, above the previous high of 4,906.77, which was reached on January 26. Investors are factoring in large earnings growth expectations and are expecting rate decreases sooner than Federal Reserve officials anticipate. If stock values are sustainable, especially for mega-cap US technology companies, the next few days will be critical.

With 19% of the S&P 500 releasing their results this week, it is the busiest week of the earnings season. Several of the largest tech firms, including Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Meta, and Alphabet– which have been leading the rally this year — will make their performance public. Investors will also be following the earnings releases from a few Dow members, including Merck and Boeing.

Furthermore, on Tuesday the Federal Open Market Committee will begin its two-day policy meeting. It is nearly a given among investors that the Fed won’t alter interest rates. The CME Group estimates that traders in the fed funds futures market placed a 97% probability on the Fed maintaining current rates at its next meeting. Given that authorities have been attentively observing the most recent economic data, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s impending press conference is quite important.

Consumer spending has exceeded expectations, yet inflation has not increased as predicted.

The S&P 500 will peak in the coming weeks at about 5,000 if the positive trend continues. But the RSI indicator indicates that the index has entered an overbought state and may “break” in the next days before continuing its rise.

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The highlights of this week’s activities!

The following major economic indicators are expected to be released this week, much anticipation on the part of the financial markets: 

• Australia’s retail sales index on Tuesday, the Eurozone’s consumer confidence and GDP indices, and the US consumer confidence and employment opportunities indices.

• Expectations are that the US Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at their current range of 5.00% to 5.25% when it releases its interest decision on Wednesday. Regarding the direction of interest rates in the upcoming phase, markets are pricing in a 50% chance of a rate reduction at the March meeting, so all eyes will be on the speech and tone of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

The most significant US events of the previous week were as follows:

• The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index increased by 50.3 points, above forecasts and the prior reading of 47.9.

• The Services Purchasing Managers’ Index increased, showing a 52.9-point gain that was higher than the prior reading (52.9) and the forecast (51.0).

• The GDP index grew by 3.3% in the fourth quarter, above the prior estimate of 4.9% and the forecast of 2.0%.

• The basic durable goods orders index increased, showing a 0.6% gain that was higher than the prior reading of 0.5% and the expected 0.2% growth.

• The new house sales index increased to 664K, above both the prior figure (615K) and the expected value of 645K.

• The initial jobless claims index rose to 214K, which exceeded expectations (200K) and the previous reading (189K).

• US crude oil inventories fell by 9.23 million barrels, which is lower than expectations (-2.15M) and the previous reading (-2.49M).

• The core personal consumption expenditures price index declined on an annual basis, recording 2.9%, which is lower than expectations (3.0%) and the previous reading (3.2%).

• The personal spending index rose on a monthly basis, recording 0.7%, which exceeded expectations and the previous reading (0.4%).

• The pending home sales index rose to 8.3%, which exceeded expectations (1.5%) and the previous reading (-0.3%).

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Technical Analysis:

EUR/USD:

If the euro against the dollar breaks the pivot point of 1.0865, it may potentially target and test the support levels of 1.0799, 1.0745, and 1.0679. Conversely, if it surpasses the pivot point, it is likely to test resistance levels of 1.0918, 1.0985, and 1.1038.

GBP/USD:

If the pound against the dollar breaks the pivot point of 1.2708, it has the potential to test the support levels of 1.2642, 1.2582, and 1.2516. However, if it exceeds the pivot point, it may test resistance levels of 1.2768, 1.2834, and 1.2894.

USD/JPY:

If the pivot point of 147.82 is broken for the dollar against the yen, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels 146.95, 145.77, and 144.90. But if it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels 149.00, 149.86, and 151.04.

GOLD:

If the pivot point of 2030 is broken for gold, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels 2015, 1994, and 1978. But if it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels 2051, 2067, and 2088.

BRENT CRUDE OIL:

If the pivot point of 81.72 for crude oil is broken, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels of 79.63, 75.72 and 73.63. If it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels 85.63, 87.72, and 91.63.

US30:

If the pivot point of 38,181 for the Dow is broken, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels 37,988, 37,718 and 37,525. If it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels 38,451, 38,644, and 38, 914.

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Please note that this analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice.

The Turkish lira kept falling, reaching a new record low of 23.5 per USD. This brought the monthly loss to 13% and the overall depreciation since the runoff election on May 28th to nearly 18%. President Tayyip Erdogan named Hafize Gaye Erkan, formerly a co-CEO at First Republic Bank and a managing director at Goldman Sachs, as the head of Turkey’s central bank after Mehmet Simsek, a former deputy prime minister renowned for his market-friendly policies, was named as the country’s new finance minister. These actions were interpreted as a clear indication of a departure from the unconventional economic practices that had resulted in rising inflation, low interest rates, a falling lira, and negative net foreign exchange reserves.

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Rising Bond Yields

Government bond yields rising globally as investors predicted that high inflation pressures would keep interest rates high. While the Federal Reserve is anticipated to deliver another boost by July, the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada both surprised markets with a 25bps interest rate increase this week.

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China Exports Tank

In May 2023, China Exports Tank 7.5% year over year to USD 283.5 billion, reversing an 8.5% gain in April and signaling the first reduction since February and the sharpest drop in four months. As a result of insufficient worldwide demand, the most recent print was worse than the market forecast of a 0.4% fall in outbound exports. source: General Administration of Customs

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Will the European Economy improve?

Following a downwardly revised 10.9% decline in March, factory orders in Germany unexpectedly fell by 0.4% in April 2023, missing market expectations of a 3.0% increase. This affected the European Economy. The dip in industrial orders, which was mostly caused by a drop in large-scale orders, continued for the second month in a row. The number of new orders for the manufacture of machinery and equipment fell 6.2%. While the number of new orders for the construction of miscellaneous vehicles—which includes the construction of ships, railway vehicles, aircraft, spacecraft, and army vehicles—down 34%. New orders increased 1.4% when large orders were excluded. Orders for consumer products decreased by 2.5%, and orders for capital goods decreased by 1.7%. The demand for intermediate goods jumped by 2.3%, and orders for motor vehicles and motor vehicle parts increased by 2.4%. While domestic orders increased 1.6%, orders from abroad declined 1.8%, including 2.7% less from the Euro Area. federal statistical office as a source.

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US Jobs Data and NFP

It is the US Jobs Data and NFP release today. Following a jump of 253K in April, the US economy is predicted to have added 190K jobs in May 2023, which would be the second-lowest record since December 2020. The industries of leisure and hospitality are projected to have added the most jobs, while manufacturing employment is predicted to remain stable and tech sector layoffs to continue. In addition, these numbers may be impacted by the Writers Guild of America’s ongoing strike. The unemployment rate is predicted to increase slightly, from 3.4% to 3.5%, although it will still be near to five-decade lows. Pay growth is anticipated to have remained constant at 4.4% and wages are anticipated to have increased by 0.3%, less than the 0.5% increase seen in April. source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

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