Dollar index held steady around 104 on Monday as Federal Reserve expected to hold rates.

After increasing for two straight sessions, the dollar index held steady around 104 on Monday as investors continued to evaluate the prospects for US interest rates in light of the most recent round of economic data. According to the most recent US jobs data, the unemployment rate in the US unexpectedly increased to 3.8% in August, the highest level since February 2022 and more than 3.5% market projections. Even while the economy added more jobs than expected last month—187,000—it fell short of the 200,000 level for the third consecutive month, indicating a gradual improvement in labor market conditions. Additionally, according to ISM statistics, US manufacturing activity increased in August but continued to decrease for the ninth straight month. The Federal Reserve is expected by the markets to maintain interest rates constant this month and there is a larger likelihood that it won’t raise rates further this year.

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European equities higher, marginally.

Following their third consecutive quarter of gains, European equities higher on the first trading day of July as investors got ready for a week full of important announcements, including the US employment report and data on the world’s manufacturing and services PMIs. After the firm disclosed on Sunday that it had delivered a record number of vehicles in the second quarter, Tesla shares listed in Frankfurt experienced a 5% boost in early trade. The European Central Bank’s 2% objective for inflation in the euro zone was still considerably over it in June, according to figures released last week, suggesting policymakers’ hawkish posture. The pan-European STOXX 600 index increased roughly 0.2% to 463 points, while Germany’s DAX 40 increased 0.2% to 16,180 points.

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After ten straight increases that increased borrowing costs by 500 basis points, The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its target range for the fed funds rate at 5%-5.25% in June 2023. This would be the first pause in the tightening campaign as policymakers evaluate the effects of the aggressive drive on the economy. Last month, the core inflation rate decreased slightly, to 5.3%, although the headline rate still remained far above than the Fed’s 2% target. Investors will also closely monitor updated economic forecasts and the so-called “dot plot” for any additional information on the Fed’s upcoming moves, particularly if the central bank will continue raising interest rates later this year. Traders presently anticipate this increase to be at least one more quarter-point. During its May meeting, the Fed increased the fed funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 5%-5.25%.

Which was the 10th increase and the highest level since September 2007. Federal Reserve as a source

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Meaning expect huge moves on: EUR/USD, GOLD, S&P500, NASDAQ, BTC, pretty much everything!

Don’t miss out! Here is the economic calendar showing when everything is kicking off.

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Due primarily to lower energy prices, the annual US inflation rate falls from 4.9% in April and 5% in March to 4.1% in May 2023, the lowest level since March 2021. The CPI is anticipated to grow by 0.2% on a monthly basis, slowing from a 0.4% gain in April. Core inflation is anticipated to drop from 5.5% to 5.3%, but the monthly rate will likely stay at 0.4%, the same as it was in April. The incoming report, which comes before the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates on Wednesday, is anticipated to make the case for pausing its tightening cycle stronger.

source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

The Turkish lira kept falling, reaching a new record low of 23.5 per USD. This brought the monthly loss to 13% and the overall depreciation since the runoff election on May 28th to nearly 18%. President Tayyip Erdogan named Hafize Gaye Erkan, formerly a co-CEO at First Republic Bank and a managing director at Goldman Sachs, as the head of Turkey’s central bank after Mehmet Simsek, a former deputy prime minister renowned for his market-friendly policies, was named as the country’s new finance minister. These actions were interpreted as a clear indication of a departure from the unconventional economic practices that had resulted in rising inflation, low interest rates, a falling lira, and negative net foreign exchange reserves.

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Rising Bond Yields

Government bond yields rising globally as investors predicted that high inflation pressures would keep interest rates high. While the Federal Reserve is anticipated to deliver another boost by July, the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada both surprised markets with a 25bps interest rate increase this week.

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China Exports Tank

In May 2023, China Exports Tank 7.5% year over year to USD 283.5 billion, reversing an 8.5% gain in April and signaling the first reduction since February and the sharpest drop in four months. As a result of insufficient worldwide demand, the most recent print was worse than the market forecast of a 0.4% fall in outbound exports. source: General Administration of Customs

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Will the European Economy improve?

Following a downwardly revised 10.9% decline in March, factory orders in Germany unexpectedly fell by 0.4% in April 2023, missing market expectations of a 3.0% increase. This affected the European Economy. The dip in industrial orders, which was mostly caused by a drop in large-scale orders, continued for the second month in a row. The number of new orders for the manufacture of machinery and equipment fell 6.2%. While the number of new orders for the construction of miscellaneous vehicles—which includes the construction of ships, railway vehicles, aircraft, spacecraft, and army vehicles—down 34%. New orders increased 1.4% when large orders were excluded. Orders for consumer products decreased by 2.5%, and orders for capital goods decreased by 1.7%. The demand for intermediate goods jumped by 2.3%, and orders for motor vehicles and motor vehicle parts increased by 2.4%. While domestic orders increased 1.6%, orders from abroad declined 1.8%, including 2.7% less from the Euro Area. federal statistical office as a source.

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US Jobs Data and NFP

It is the US Jobs Data and NFP release today. Following a jump of 253K in April, the US economy is predicted to have added 190K jobs in May 2023, which would be the second-lowest record since December 2020. The industries of leisure and hospitality are projected to have added the most jobs, while manufacturing employment is predicted to remain stable and tech sector layoffs to continue. In addition, these numbers may be impacted by the Writers Guild of America’s ongoing strike. The unemployment rate is predicted to increase slightly, from 3.4% to 3.5%, although it will still be near to five-decade lows. Pay growth is anticipated to have remained constant at 4.4% and wages are anticipated to have increased by 0.3%, less than the 0.5% increase seen in April. source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

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